They really don’t like the man. The bad news for Biden, according to the Democracy Institute’s latest poll of US voters, is most voters think Trump
They really don’t like the man. The bad news for Biden, according to the Democracy Institute’s latest poll of US voters, is most voters think Trump’s been too soft, and Biden largely AWOL, on the protests and riots still raging in towns and cities. Yet, the really bad news for Biden is a majority of voters think he’s literally losing his mind. Literally.
When voters think you’re experiencing early stages of dementia, they may still like you, they may increasingly feel sorry for you, but they also threaten to derail your apparent (according to most American media polling) stroll to an autumnal victory.
Between now and Election Day, the factor that will most influence the final outcome will be the debates between President Trump and his Democratic opponent.
Should Biden regain some of his past skill at coasting through such encounters with moderate, platitudinous comments delivered with a smile, a little humour, and an Everyman demeanour, he will retain a good chance of enjoying a very competitive election.
But, should Biden have even one “senior moment,” during which he forgets what he’s saying, or where he is, or the question posed to him, his chances of beating Trump will be somewhere between slim and none.
Joe Biden viewed by voters as going ‘AWOL’
The Biden-supporting mainstream American media won’t play the alarming clip in a seemingly endless loop, as they would should Trump similarly mess up.
Yet, Fox News will do just that, and Fox News’s audience dwarfs that of its competitors.
Plus, the Trump campaign is so loaded with cash it will spend a $100 million across television, radio, online, and digital platforms to drown Americans in Biden’s alleged cognitive decline.
Should Biden perform in each one of the debates as he has in most of his scripted, gentle media encounters to date, Trump could win in a landslide.
Barring a Biden debate meltdown, our poll brings elements of good news for the Democratic candidate.
He remains generally well-liked and is viewed as genuinely wanting everyone to get along with each other the way they did in the good (now, considered by many Democrats as quite bad) ol’ days before Barack Obama became president.
The Biden campaign can continue to exploit Trump’s political vulnerability on his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In cold-blooded political terms, the greater the perceived danger arising from any increase in coronavirus cases, the more likely it will be that voters view the election as a referendum on the incumbent president, which will neutralise some, perhaps many, of Trump’s advantages.
It will also reinforce Biden’s image as a calm pair of hands to place the keys to the White House and, most importantly, the keys to the presidential nuclear codes.
In this vein, most of the media is doing Biden’s heavy-lifting for him.
After dropping wall-to-wall pandemic coverage for a fortnight, while cheering on the national protest movement, the media has returned to pandemic coverage with renewed gusto.
No voter is unaware that coronavirus cases are rising, although many will be unaware that, in most affected states, fewer Americans are dying.
Donald Trump ‘too soft’ say US voters
A more widespread virus with, critically, less deadly consequences would be comparatively good news for the Trump reelection effort.
It’s a narrative the Biden campaign and its media allies will challenge each and every day until November.
The other referendum question sought by Biden will be about Trump’s economic stewardship.
The Democrats won’t talk about the pre-pandemic economic recovery because that superb economy almost guaranteed Trump’s reelection.
Biden needs most voters to be very anxious, if not actually hurting, economically for another 16 weeks, at least.
If they are, which a return to lockdown status in many states would likely ensure, it will be hard for Trump to prove he has repaired the American economy for a second time in a single term.
Biden ‘needs voters to be economically hurting’
While potential new lockdowns are a political cloud on Trump’s electoral horizon, the darkening cloud hovering over Biden’s candidacy is the manner in which the American economy already is rebounding from its deep dive earlier this year.
Not only are jobs, housing, restaurants, bars, shops, and the stock market on the way up, but the growing economy is occurring much sooner than the experts predicted.
And voters have noticed and are growing in optimism on this issue.
Economic historians may debate President John F. Kennedy’s famous claim that “a rising tide lifts all the boats.”
What’s undebatable is that a high economic tide over the next four months would surely lift Donald Trump to a second term.