Expected Fiscal Stimulus, US-China Trade War To Guide Markets: Experts


The rupee, on a weekly basis, weakened by 35 paise to close at 71.16 against the dollar.


An expected stimulus package, along with attractive valuations are likely to swing the domestic equity indices’ upwards during this week.

However, any rise in the US-China trade tensions, coupled with a slowing global growth scenario and earnings downgrade, will arrest the market’s northward trajectory.

Analysts opined that investors are awaiting a stimulus package and relief for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from the super-rich surcharge which was announced in the Budget in July.

The positive outlook on a likely stimulus package gained after Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently reviewed the state of the economy with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

“A bounce back is expected in the coming week on the back of attractive valuations and expectations of a stimulus package,” Edelweiss Professional Investor Research chief market strategist Sahil Kapoor told IANS.

According to HDFC Securities’ retail research head Deepak Jasani: “The expected reliefs post the meet of PM with FM to provide a solution to the slowdown may also lead to this up move, though the extent may not be large.”

“Nifty could face resistance in the coming week from the 11,108-11,181 band and later 11,210, while it could take support from 10,895,” he said.

In contrast, earnings growth and outlook might be downgraded for 2019-20 as overall first quarter profit after tax (PAT) grew by only 8 per cent compared to expectations of 11 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, which is expected to cap any major upward movement of the market.

“On the other hand, global issues are not subsiding while the domestic market is floating on hopes of stimulus package,” said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services.

“Given the government weak fiscal condition, limited measures may not have a positive effect in the market,” he added.

In terms of currency, the rupee, on a weekly basis, weakened by 35 paise to close at 71.16 against the dollar, down on its previous week’s close of 70.81 per greenback.

“Artificial stimulus and currency wars are making the markets jittery. Rupee can trade with a weak bias towards 72 and can appreciate a bit if stimulus is announced,” said Sajal Gupta, head, forex and rates, Edelweiss Securities.

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