Patrick Basham explains his polls show massive republican win
Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker is set to have a humiliating end to her political career with an eve of poll projection suggesting that US voters are set to heavily punish her, Joe Biden and the Democrats. The exclusive monthly tracker poll for Express.co.uk by the Washington DC based Democracy Institute predicts that the Republicans will crush the Democrats in the races for the Senate and Congress.
The poll of 1,500 “likely voters” puts the Republicans (also known as the GOP) 51 percent to 46 percent ahead of the Democrats in the House of Representatives election.
According to the Democracy Institute this will give the GOP a minimum gain of 33 to 38 sears but a “probably gain” of 39 to 51 seats.
At the lowest point this would mean the Republicans have 245 seats with a majority of 55 but at the top end they could have 265 seats with a majority of 95.
It is a major reversal for Ms Pelosi, whose tenure as House Speaker will come to an end, and the Democrats who currently hold a majority with 220 to 212 seats and three vacancies.
Express.co.uk recently revealed that Ms Pelosi is eyeing a getaway to Italy as the new US ambassador there.
Final polling suggests the Democrats will be heavily punished in the Midterm elections
The Democracy Institute has identified 70 battleground seats which could all switch to or stay with Republican red in swing states like Ohio, New York, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania.
But the results get worse for the Democrats in the Senate where they had been optimistic of holding off the Republicans and maintaining the current 50/ 50 seats status quo giving Vice President Kamala Harris the casting vote.
The poll suggests that likely voters who are willing to cast the ballot on Tuesday split 49 percent to 46 percent in favour of the Republicans.
This has led the Democracy Institute to increase its Senate seat projection of gains by one in favour of the Republicans from 53 to at least 54 with the Democrats left with 46.
READ MORE: Biden warned Midterms to spur ‘potentially quite dangerous period’
The Republicans have a 5 point lead in the House race
The Republicans are looking at a big majority in the House of Representatvies
The Democracy Institute has identified 70 battlegrounds to look out for on Tuesday
This would mean the Republicans hold Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania despite Biden and Barack Obama leading major campaign pushes there.
But the GOP would also gain all four of their top targets – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire.
In Georgia the former American football running back Herschel Walker, a friend of Donald Trump’s, is the Republican candidate.
However, things are so desperate for the Democrats that the Democracy Institute predicts that they could also lose Washington state and Colorado with Connecticut another potential gain.
If all these come in the Republicans will hold the Senate by 57 to 43.
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The REpublicans appear to be on the way to controlling the Senate
The GOP could make at least four gains on Tuesday in the Senate
The key Senate battlegrounds identified
The major issue hitting Joe Biden and the Democrats appears to be the economy.
In the poll 50 percent put the economy as the number one issue dividing between 33 percent inflation and the cost of living and 17 percent the economy and jobs as the top two concerns.
But Mr Biden’s handling of the economy is seen as a big negative with 66 percent disapproving of it compared to a mere 29 percent approving.
Overall 56 percent do not think his administration is competent while only 38 percent think it is.
And 71 percent now believe he is leading to them to a recession while 56 percent think Donald Trump was a better President.
Half of US voters top issue is inflation or the economy
Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham noted that the Democrats are now piling campaign resources in what should be safe areas.
In a video interview (above) he noted: “We were expecting a red Republican wave but now it looks like a tsunami.”
Writing for Express.co.uk, he added: “In a campaign, ‘money’ refers not only to a campaign or party’s financial assets.
“The most revealing development is that the Democrats are playing defence almost everywhere on the electoral map. They are targeting their party’s resources at defending incumbent senators and congressmen in such staunchly [Democrat] blue states as California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington.
“The congressional Democrats’ campaign arms are sending millions of dollars and the party’s most popular surrogates to traditionally safe Democratic states and districts.
“To that end, the Democrats are currently spending 80 percent of their money defending the seats held by their own congressmen and senators. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by double digit margins in many of these deep blue districts.”
Biden’s handling of the economy is rated poorly
There are though a series of potential consequences of a sweeping victory for the Republicans.
It is likely to confirm that Donald Trump is going to launch his campaign to retake the White House in 2024.
Sources have suggested this will happen as close as January with a number of Senate and House candidates closely linked to Mr Trump or his Maga (Make America Great Against) movement.
It also means that Republicans are highly likely to launch impeachment proceedings against Mr Biden as well as an investigation into his son Hunter and an inquiry into his handling of covid as well as official like chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci.
Amajority of voters think Trump was a better President than Biden
US House of Representatives
Q “Which party’s congressional candidate will you vote for in this year’s election for the House of Representatives?”
Partisan & Demographic Sub-groups
Republican = 93% Democratic = 5% Undecided = 2%
Republican = 8% Democratic = 89% Undecided = 3%
Republican = 54% Democratic = 42% Undecided = 4%
Republican = 52% Democratic = 45% Undecided = 3%
Republican = 49% Democratic = 48% Undecided = 3%
Republican = 55% Democratic = 42% Undecided = 3%
Republican = 23% Democratic = 72% Undecided = 5%
Republican = 55% Democratic = 41% Undecided = 4%
Q “Do you expect the Democrats or the Republicans to win this year’s midterm congressional election?”
Democrats = 41%
Republicans = 59%
House of Representatives Seat Projection (if voting uniformly mirrors these poll results)
435 total seats / 218 seats needed to win majority
Current: Democrats = 220 seats; Republicans = 212 seats; vacant = 3 seats
Biden has low job approval as President
Q “Which party’s candidate will/would you vote for in this year’s election for the Senate?”
Partisan & Demographic Sub-groups
Republican = 91% Democratic = 6% Undecided = 3%
Republican = 10% Democratic = 88% Undecided = 2%
Republican = 53% Democratic = 42% Undecided = 5%
Republican = 50% Democratic = 47% Undecided = 3%
Republican = 47% Democratic = 46% Undecided = 7%
Republican = 53% Democratic = 43% Undecided = 4%
Republican = 20% Democratic = 73% Undecided = 7%
Republican = 52% Democratic = 42% Undecided = 6%
Senate Seat Projection (if voting uniformly mirrors these poll results)
100 total seats / currently 50 Democrats & 50 Republicans
Q “Are you extremely or very enthusiastic about your choice of congressional candidate?”
Democratic voters = 57%
Republican voters = 70%
Q “Does the Democratic party primarily represent ordinary people or wealthy elites?”
Ordinary people = 42%
Elites = 46%
Q “Does the Republican party primarily represent ordinary people or wealthy elites?”
Ordinary people = 54%
Elites = 44%
Direction of Country
Q “Is America currently heading in the right or wrong direction as a country?”
Most Important Issue & Favoured Party
Q “What issue is most important to you, and which party do you favour on this issue?”
Inflation = 33% [Republicans favored by 25 points]
Economy/Jobs = 17% [Republicans +19]
Crime = 17% [Republicans +24]
Immigration = 11% [Republicans +21]
Baby formula = 5% [Republicans +22]
Education = 5% [Republicans +10]
Abortion = 5% [Republicans +1]
Ukraine/Russia = 5% [Republicans +7]
COVID-19 = 2% [Democrats +3]
Most Americans believe their country is heading for a recession
Q “The Supreme Court’s ruling to overturn Roe v Wade, the 1973 decision that effectively legalised abortion across America, gives individual states the power to decide their own abortion policy. Does this ruling make you more likely to vote in this election?”
Q “Do you think there is an invasion of illegal immigrants taking place at America’s southern border with Mexico?”
Q “Do you support or oppose a freeze on legal immigration into the United States?”
Support = 54%
Oppose = 41%
Q “In general, do you trust government experts on important economic, foreign policy, and medical subjects?”
Biden’s Domestic Policy Ratings
Q “Do you approve of President Biden’s overall handling of the economy?”
Q “Do you think the American economy is in a recession?”
Q “Do you think Congress should reduce the amount Americans pay in income tax to the federal government?”
Biden’s Job Approval Rating
Q “Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden’s overall performance as President?”
Approve = 40%
Disapprove = 54%
Q “Would you describe the Biden administration as generally competent?”
Q “Do you think President Joe Biden is a better or worse president than former President Donald Trump?”
Biden’s Foreign Policy Ratings
Q “Do you approve of President Biden’s overall handling of foreign policy?”
Patrick Basham is Director of the Democracy Institute
The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1500 likely US voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from November 1st to November 3rd 2022. The national party identification turnout model is D (+) 1, i.e., Democrats = 35 percent; Republicans = 34 percent; and Independents = 31 percent. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions were played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers were given via their telephone keypads. To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history, and cell phone-only households. This national poll has a margin of error of (+/-) 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.