After a record-breaking summer packed with sizzling conditions – it’s no surprise that October has produced mild temperatures with only occasional glimmers of autumnal weather in southern and central England. But as a new month arrives, so does an entirely new set of wintery expectations, with the Met Office predicting frontal systems more in-line with the time of year at the start of November. Its long range forecast alludes to varying seasonal changes which includes gusts, coastal gales and heavy rain – jolting Britain back to where it should be for the time of year.
Its long range forecast for the end of October and start of November says: “A continuation of changeable and unsettled weather conditions over the weekend as bands of rain or showers move northeastwards across the country, with locally heavy showers possible in places.
“The wettest weather will affect northern and western areas, with the south and east likely to see drier conditions, albeit with some showers still possible here. Remaining unsettled as we move into November with showers or periods of more prolonged rainfall for many, this heavy at times.
“There is a risk of strong winds as well as coastal gales for some throughout the period, particularly in the west. Temperatures likely to stay mild to very mild overnight and warm during the day, trending towards nearer normal temperatures by the end of the first week of November.”
Then for the middle of November, it continues: “Unsettled conditions are expected to continue at first, with further heavy rain possible, particularly in the south. An increasing chance of settled weather remains during the second week of November, bringing a potential for colder, drier weather especially for the north and west. This would likely bring a risk of chilly nights with mist, frost and fog in places, with some snow possible in any showers in northern and western areas, especially over high ground.”
Met Office spokesman Grahame Madge said despite the early indicators of more wintry conditions coming in November “confidence remains relatively low.”
He told Express.co.uk: “We have an unsettled period ahead of the weekend, with the potential for strong winds around Northern Ireland and the west of Scotland. From the weekend onwards there is very little certainty at present, so the confidence about likely scenarios beyond that remain relatively low.”
Despite the caution surrounding the change, Jim Dale, senior meteorologist at British Weather Services said the UK will begin a “long walk to normality” after what has been a fairly hot October, on the whole.
He told Express.co.uk: “I think it will be a gradual thing through that first week of November, Scotland first but nothing yet over the top. It is an almost inevitable decline given where we are right now – a long walk to normality – it is standard but it changes the face of things after all the mild weather.”
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Mr Dale’s outlook for the next fortnight can also be exclusively revealed by Express.co.uk. He said: “It will be a mixed scenario for the next 14 days – yes, some wind and rain at times, then warm and mild.
“Then we will slowly be reverting to seasonal type weather as November unfolds. Most rain as per the north and west – but we are having to watch and wait for specifically hazardous weather, with no warnings at present.”
Interactive weather model, WX Charts, shows the decline in conditions throughout the first week of November, more noticeably with a temperature drop.
On Thursday, November 3 a surge of cold air will come across from the Atlantic, travelling east across Britain before dissipating on Sunday, November 6 – but this brief pause in plummeting thermometers won’t be for long.
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Early indications show a further Arctic blast could be about to blanket the UK from Thursday, November 10 with much of Scotland copping the brunt. However, this may be set to change as more information about this weather front becomes clearer.
From Monday, November 7 thermometers will record highs of 6C in the south, 3C in the north and will struggle to stay above freezing in Scotland. Confidence over whether this brief, cold spell will stay is low at the moment.
Maps do show a slight increase in temperatures during the second week of November – but specific details will not be known until closer to the time.